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Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22
Jan 31, 2021 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Metz logo

Brest
2 - 4
Metz

Honorat (33'), Cardona (48')
Perraud (31')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Boulaya (36'), Sarr (74'), Ndiaga Yade (81'), Goncalves (88' pen.)
Ndiaga Yade (89'), Fofana (90+3'), Boulaya (90+3')

Preview: Brest vs. Metz - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Metz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brest take on Metz in Ligue 1 on Sunday, with the hosts looking to bounce back after three successive defeats.

Metz, meanwhile, have climbed to eighth in the table after an unbeaten run of four matches.


Match preview

Brest coach Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in January 2020© Reuters

There was certainly no shame in losing to sides competing in this season's Champions League in the shape of Paris Saint-Germain and Rennes in recent weeks, but the 1-0 defeat to Reims last weekend would likely have concerned Olivier Dall'Oglio.

Indeed, Brest failed to muster a single shot on target across the 90 minutes, although Reims only had two themselves in a quiet match for both goalkeepers.

Reims took the lead after 40 minutes in comical fashion, with Xavier Chavalerin's powerful left-footed strike from distance hitting Nathanael Mbuku square in the face and diverting into the back of the net.

The lack of response from Brest was staggering, with Dall'Oglio's side unlikely to find creating chances any easier on Sunday against a defensively resolute Metz side.

Metz goalkeeper Alexandre Oukidja pictured in September 2020© Reuters

Indeed, while the long-term injury to Ibrahima Niane continues to deprive Metz of a consistent goalscorer, five clean sheets in their last seven matches has helped propel them back into a top-half position.

Frederic Antonetti has instilled serious defensive discipline into the club, with their record of conceding only 18 goals in 21 matches only bettered by the divison's top two sides in PSG and Lille.

After stunning Lyon 1-0 in their previous match, Metz took on Nantes full of confidence, and so it proved with a solid 2-0 victory. Aaron Leya Iseka rewarded Antonetti's faith with his fourth goal in only six starts this season, with Farid Boulaya wrapping up the three points with a goal in injury time after Nantes had failed to test Alexandre Oukidja all match.

Metz now sit only one point behind sixth-placed Marseille in the table, so may have their sights on competing in European football for the first time since losing to West Ham United in the Intertoto Cup in 1999.

Brest Ligue 1 form: DLWLLL

Metz Ligue 1 form: WLDDWW


Team News

Metz forward Ibrahima Niane in action with Marseille's Hiroki Sakai on December 14, 2019© Reuters

Brest will be without Cristian Battocchio due to illness, with Denys Bain's ACL injury keeping him out until at least March.

Dall'Oglio may shake things up in offensive areas, with Irvin Cardona an option to come into the side.

Metz's progress has been made all the more impressive by the amount of absentees they have, with Habib Maiga, Thomas Delaine, Vincent Pajot, Opa Nguette, Kevin N'Doram, Manuel Cabit and Niane all unavailable to travel to Brest.

With his options limited, Antonetti is unlikely to change anything from the side which comfortably dispatched Nantes last weekend.

Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Pierre-Gabriel, Chardonnet, Herelle, Perraud; Honorat, Belkebla, Lasne, Cardona; Mounie, Faivre

Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Bronn, Kouyate, Boye; Centonze, Angban, Sarr, Udol; Boulaya; Leya, Goncalves


SM words green background

We say: Brest 1-1 Metz

Brest do have the firepower to score past Metz, so we can see a share of the spoils in what should be a fairly even encounter.

Metz will look to hit the hosts on the break, so if they can score first they will be a tough nut to crack.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Metz had a probability of 32.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brest vs Metz

Brest
37.5%
Draw
29.2%
Metz
33.3%
24
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Lyon's Jason Denayer celebrates with teammates after scoring against Rennes on January 9, 2021
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1Paris Saint-GermainPSG14104037112634
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon147432617925
6Lens156631914524
7Nice146532617923
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest145182026-616
12Rennes144281820-214
13NantesNantes143561620-414
14StrasbourgStrasbourg143562227-514
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