Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Criciuma win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Vitoria had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Criciuma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Vitoria win was 0-1 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Vitoria would win this match.