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Bournemouth logo
Championship | Gameweek 28
Feb 6, 2021 at 3pm UK
Vitality Stadium
Birmingham logo

Bournemouth
3 - 2
Birmingham

Danjuma (36'), Wilshere (61'), Billing (77')
Billing (79')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Hogan (27', 68')
Friend (83'), Gardner (90+2')

Preview: Bournemouth vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Bournemouth and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bournemouth begin life without Jason Tindall with a home fixture against Birmingham City in the Championship.

While the Cherries have recorded four successive defeats in the second tier, Blues head into Saturday's encounter on the back of three games without a win.


Match preview

Birmingham City manager Aitor Karanka pictured on January 10, 2021© Reuters

When Bournemouth lost out to Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night, Tindall would have been aware that he was under increasing pressure to turn things around at the Vitality Stadium.

However, the club's hierarchy wasted little time in removing the Cherries boss from his position in the dugout, appointing Jonathan Woodgate as his replacement on a caretaker basis.

The decisions have divided opinion among the fanbase, with some feeling that Tindall should have been given more time to change the team's fortunes and others not welcoming the promotion of former Middlesbrough manager Woodgate.

Nevertheless, supporters will expect an immediate reaction from one of the most talented squads in the division, and a fixture against Birmingham is arguably the perfect game for the new arrival.

Home form is an issue, however, with Bournemouth scoring just three goals in four games on the South Coast, as well as claiming just one point from three games against teams in 13th position or below.

As far as Birmingham are concerned, Aitor Karanka will be optimistic of claiming a result against the promotion contenders having made a habit of beating the top teams on away territory.

While supporters were left frustrated with Tuesday's goalless draw at Wycombe Wanderers, victories at Bristol City, Reading and Middlesbrough remain fresh in the memory.

Karanka made some astute signings during the January transfer window, including the acquisitions of Aberdeen forward Sam Cosgrove and Southampton full-back Yan Valery.

However, Blues now sit two points above the relegation zone, a direct consequence of scoring just two goals during their last six fixtures.

Bournemouth Championship form: WDLLLL
Bournemouth form (all competitions): DLLWLL

Birmingham City Championship form: LLWLDD
Birmingham City form (all competitions): LLWLDD


Team News

Middlesbrough boss Jonathan Woodgate on March 2, 2020© Reuters

Woodgate will make changes to the team after the defeat to Sheffield Wednesday, which should include a recall for Jefferson Lerma.

Philip Billing is also in contention for an appearance in midfield, putting Jack Wilshere at risk of dropping down to the substitutes' bench.

Birmingham will be without Marc Roberts after his late dismissal against Wycombe on Tuesday evening.

Cosgrove could replace Lukas Jutkiewicz in attack, but the likes of Jon Toral and Rekeem Harper may remain among the replacements.

Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Begovic; Stacey, Mepham, Cook, Kelly; Billing, Cook, Lerma; Brooks, Solanke, Groeneveld

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Dean, Friend, Pedersen; Sunjic, San Jose, Gardner; Sanchez, Cosgrove, Bela


SM words green background

We say: Bournemouth 2-0 Birmingham City

With the chasing pack closing in on Bournemouth, Woodgate knows that he needs to get a reaction out of his side. Despite Blues having a strong record away at the top clubs this season, we are backing the Cherries to run out comfortable winners against their relegation-threatened opponents.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 49.59%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 23.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.


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Southampton's Yan Valery pictured in January 2021
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