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Birmingham logo
Championship | Gameweek 45
May 1, 2021 at 3pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Birmingham
0 - 4
Cardiff


Dean (84')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Wilson (9', 40', 86'), Harris (68')
Pack (61')

Preview: Birmingham City vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Birmingham City welcome Cardiff City to St Andrew's on Saturday afternoon with their place in the Championship ensured for another season.

The Blues beat Derby County 2-1 last time out to make certain of survival, while Cardiff saw off Wycombe Wanderers by the same scoreline to tighten their hold on eighth place.


Match preview

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring their first goal against Swansea City in the Championship on April 2, 2021© Reuters

Relegation looked a real possibility for Birmingham for a large part of the season, but Lee Bowyer's arrival in mid-March has completely transformed their campaign.

The Blues have won five, drawn two and lost one of their eight matches under the former Charlton Athletic boss, most recently picking up all three points at Midlands rivals Derby.

From being three points above the dropzone, having played four games more than Rotherham United in the final relegation spot, Birmingham are now 13 points clear.

The victory at Pride Park, secured thanks to Lukas Jutkiewicz's second-half double, means that Bowyer's men can now finish no lower than 20th.

The pressure is therefore off for this penultimate game of the campaign against a Cardiff side who themselves have little left to play for on the face of it.

Mick McCarthy's men were in superb form from the start of February until the middle of March, taking 23 points from a possible 27 to climb into the playoff positions.

Cardiff City's Kieffer Moore celebrates scoring their first goal from the penalty spot against Brentford in the Championship on April 20, 2021© Reuters

Sustaining that form was never likely to be possible, of course, and so it has proved with a run of two wins in 11 prior to last week's visit of bottom side Wycombe Wanderers.

Kieffer Moore netted twice against Wycombe to reach 20 league goals for the campaign - the first Cardiff player to do so since Jay Bothroyd and the late Peter Whittingham in 2011.

That ended a winless run of five games for Cardiff and leaves them five points off Reading in seventh, which will now be the target for McCarthy.

The Bluebirds are seeking back-to-back wins for the first time since that aforementioned winning run in February, while Birmingham are aiming to make it seven without defeat.

Cardiff won the reverse fixture 3-2 four months ago, but they have won just one of their last 18 league visits to Birmingham - a 1-0 victory on New Year's Day in 2013.

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W



Team News

Cardiff City's Sean Morrison celebrates scoring against Middlesbrough on July 18, 2020© Reuters

Scott Hogan missed the win against Derby with a hip injury sustained against Nottingham Forest, and the seven-goal striker is not expected to be back in time for this match.

Bowyer paired Jonathan Leko with Jutkiewicz in Hogan's absence, but he may be tempted to give youth a chance here, with Amari Miller possibly in line for a first start.

Steve Seddon was replaced at half time at Pride Park and may miss out to Ivan Sanchez against Cardiff.

As for the visitors, they will definitely be without midfielder Will Vaulks following his late sending off against Wycombe.

Joe Bennett, Sol Bamba and Lee Tomlin are long-term absentees, but skipper Sean Morrison returned from a month-long injury layoff last week.

McCarthy notably left out Cardiff's array of loan players against Wycombe with an eye on next season, so expect youngsters Rubin Colwill and Ciaron Brown to appear again here.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Dean, Roberts, Pedersen; Sunjic, Gardner; McGree, Sanchez, Bela; Jutkiewicz

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Morrison, Flint, Nelson; Ng, Pack, Ralls, Brown; Colwill, Murphy; Moore


SM words green background

We say: Birmingham City 2-2 Cardiff City

With the pressure off for both sides, this could be an entertaining contest in the West Midlands.

Eighteen goals have been scored in the last four meetings between the sides, and we can see the spoils being shared here in a high-scoring draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



ID:445306:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9553:
Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Birmingham vs Cardiff

Birmingham City
49.2%
Draw
33.8%
Cardiff City
16.9%
65
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton2511593839-138
10Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
11Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
12Charlton AthleticCharlton249782925434
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Blackpool2571083437-331
15Stevenage248791922-331
16Exeter CityExeter2594122832-431
17Wigan AthleticWigan2486102324-130
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2575134146-526
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
24Burton Albion2529142139-1815


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