Two teams enjoying excellent seasons in La Liga will lock horns at Estadio de Vallecas on Sunday afternoon, as sixth-placed Rayo Vallecano welcome third-placed Real Betis.
Both sides will enter this match off the back of Copa del Rey wins, with Rayo overcoming Mirandes, while Betis progressed to the round of 16 courtesy of a victory over Real Valladolid.
Match preview
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Rayo made it three wins in their last four matches in all competitions on Wednesday evening, as they recorded a 1-0 victory over Mirandes to advance to the last-16 stage of the Copa del Rey.
The capital outfit have also enjoyed an excellent campaign in La Liga, winning nine, drawing three and losing seven of their 19 matches to collect 30 points, which has left them in sixth position in the table, just one point behind fifth-placed Barcelona and only two behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid.
Rayo suffered a 2-0 defeat at Atletico in the league last weekend but were missing a number of players through coronavirus, and head coach Andoni Iraola should have a lot of those available for selection here.
The club's best top-flight campaign to date was ninth in 1999-2000, so it could be a famous season for Los Franjirrojos, who secured a return to this level by advancing through the Segunda Division playoffs last term.
Andoni's side face a tough task to stay in the European spots this season, but they are crucially 14 points clear of the relegation zone and have impressed many with their performances in 2021-22.
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Betis, meanwhile, will also be delighted with their La Liga season to date, having picked up 33 points from their 19 matches to sit third in the table, three points above their opponents this weekend.
Manuel Pellegrini's side are currently competing on three fronts, having advanced in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday, while they will face Zenit St Petersburg in the knockout round of the Europa League next month.
The Seville-based outfit actually won four straight league matches against Elche, Levante, Barcelona and Real Sociedad between November 21 and December 12 but have lost their last two, going down 3-2 at Athletic Bilbao on December 19 before suffering a 2-0 defeat at home to Celta Vigo last time out.
Betis will therefore be desperate to return to winning ways this weekend, as they are only three points clear of seventh-placed Real Sociedad and could quickly find themselves sliding down the table.
The Green and Whites have won two of their last three La Liga meetings with Rayo but have not been victorious against them in the Spanish capital since October 2015.
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Team News
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Rayo will be without the services of Martin Merquelanz, Alvaro Garcia and Unai Lopez through injury this weekend, but the club should have the majority of the players who missed the clash with Atletico through coronavirus available for selection.
Sergi Guardiola is likely to get the nod at the tip of the attack, with Radamel Falcao potentially appearing off the bench, while Isi Palazon and Oscar Trejo should also feature in the final third of the field.
There will be changes from the side that started in the Copa del Rey last time out, with Esteban Saveljich and Ivan Balliu in line to return at the back.
As for Betis, Willian Jose and Martin Montoya will both miss the contest through injury, but Guido Rodriguez is available once again following a suspension.
The visitors could also be without the services of Youssouf Sabaly, Victor Camarasa, Joaquin, Juan Miranda, Paul Akouokou and Rober for this weekend's clash in the Spanish capital.
Sergio Canales, Rui Silva, Victor Ruiz and Juanmi will be among those to return to the starting side, having dropped out of the XI for the Copa del Rey clash with Valladolid on Wednesday.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, Saveljich, Catena, F Garcia; Comesana, Valentin; Palazon, Trejo, Bebe; Guardiola
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Silva; Bellerin, Bartra, Ruiz, Moreno; Rodriguez, Guardado; Fekir, Canales, Juanmi; Iglesias
We say: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Betis
These two teams have only drawn six league games between them this season, but the points were shared when they last locked horns in the Spanish capital in March 2019, and we are backing a low-scoring draw this weekend, which would not be the worst result for either side.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Real Betis had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Real Betis win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
