Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 48.63%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.85%) and 0-2 (8.31%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 1-0 (6.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.