Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 68.05%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Leuven had a probability of 14.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9%) and 1-3 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Leuven win it was 2-1 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.