Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 2-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.