Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 75.9%. A draw had a probability of 13.9% and a win for Leuven had a probability of 10.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.49%) and 3-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.91%), while for a Leuven win it was 1-2 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Genk in this match.