Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 56.75%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 22.56% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.47%) and 0-1 (7.02%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 2-1 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.