Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 52%. A win for Anderlecht had a probability of 25.06% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Anderlecht win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.