Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Neman had a probability of 35.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Neman win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.