Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 12.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.68%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Smorgon win it was 1-0 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.