Union Berlin's incredible home record will face arguably its greatest test possible on Saturday, when they welcome Bundesliga leaders and reigning champions Bayern Munich to the Stadion An der alten Forsterei.
The hosts will be in a confident mood after another impressive start to the campaign, but they will be wary of a backlash from their visiting opponents at the weekend, who suffered a humiliating defeat in the cup in midweek.
Match preview
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Union's home record remains one of the best across Europe heading into the weekend, with 21 Bundesliga matches without defeat in front of their own supporters, which may come as a surprise to most.
In fact, they have not suffered a loss in the league on home soil since the 3-1 defeat to Augsburg on the opening weekend of the 2020-21 campaign.
Included in that run was a 1-1 draw with this weekend's opponents Bayern, who are sure to provide the toughest test of that record, but the hosts will be confident considering they achieved the same scoreline at the Allianz Arena back in April as well to remain unbeaten against the leaders last season.
Another reason for Die Eisernen to be in a confident mood on Saturday is their positive start to the 2021-22 campaign, with Urs Fischer's side sitting in fifth place as things stand, just one point off the top four.
After last year's seventh-place finish earned Union a spot in the debut campaign of the Europa Conference league, the capital side could be set to go one better this time around.
Fischer will have plenty of fresh legs available to him on Saturday, after he managed to rest some first-team players for the DFB-Pokal tie against Waldhof Mannheim on Wednesday.
Extra time was required, though, with top goalscorer Taiwo Awoniyi being required from the bench to net his side's second in a 3-1 win, with Kevin Behrens netting the other two against their third-tier opponents.
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Union will be unsure of what to expect from league leaders Bayern on Saturday, though, with the Bavarians coming into this fixture off the back of their heaviest competitive defeat since 1978.
The 5-0 defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach in the second round of the DFB-Pokal on Wednesday has shaken German football and provided fresh hope to upcoming opponents, who have been dominated by the giants for most years since the turn of the century.
Although Julian Nagelsmann was again absent from the touchline due to testing positive for COVID-19 recently, no specific reason has been pinpointed for the disaster, particularly considering Bayern fielded a full-strength 11 at Borussia-Park.
The eyes of opposing teams and supporters across Germany will be firmly set on Nagelsmann's side on Saturday, intrigued as to whether the Bavarians can bounce back as they usually do, or whether this is the beginning of an unlikely downfall.
After huge wins over Bayer Leverkusen, Benfica and Hoffenheim in the two previous weeks since returning from the international break, as well as a near-perfect start to the new campaign overall, it is unlikely that Bayern will be wounded for too long, though, and they will be keen to erase the memories of Wednesday evening quickly.
Despite Robert Lewandowski and co being shut out on Wednesday, they have still managed to score a staggering 60 competitive goals so far this season, with the Polish striker responsible for 17 of these already, and they will be looking to regain their goalscoring touch at the weekend, despite the defensive concerns.
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Team News
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Rani Khedira appears to be the only definite absentee for Union on Saturday, with the midfielder expected to be out for around a month due to a groin injury.
Defensive duo Rick Van Drongelen and Marvin Friedrich could return after missing the last couple of matches due to COVID-19, although it is unclear whether they are available just yet.
Pawel Wszolek is back available again, though, making his club debut as an extra-time substitute in the midweek cup tie, after his arrival in the summer.
Meanwhile, Alphonso Davies and Leon Goretzka returned for Bayern in the midweek hammering, after short absences recently.
Goretzka was taken off shortly after the hour mark, though, so it remains to be seen whether the German midfielder will be available on Saturday.
Second-choice goalkeeper Sven Ulreich and spare striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting are the two definite absentees, missing out through knee and thigh injuries respectively.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jaeckel, Knoche, Baumgartl; Trimmel, Haraguchi, Oztunali, Promel, Giesselmann; Awoniyi, Kruse
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Upamecano, Davies; Kimmich, Tolisso; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern Munich
Union will have their tails up here and we can see them extending their unbeaten home record against their wounded opponents.
Bayern are likely to start quickly in response to their heavy defeat in the week, but their hosts will sit in and frustrate them in the hope of grinding out a result, which we can see them managing.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 59.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 19.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.61%) and 0-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.29%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
