Reigning champions Bayern Munich host their first home match of the new Bundesliga season on Sunday, as they welcome FC Koln to the Allianz Arena.
Despite being huge favourites for this one, Bayern will need to be on their guard as they look to earn their first win against a side tipped to struggle again this year.
Match preview
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Julian Nagelsmann has endured a mixed start at his new club after joining from RB Leipzig in the summer. He replaced Hansi Flick, who departed for the German national team job after winning everything he could in his relatively short reign.
A host of players returning to pre-season training late in the warm-up schedule after international commitments over the past couple of months meant it was tough for Nagelsmann to completely get his ideas across before the season started.
Four friendlies were played and three of these were lost, with the other being a draw. Ten goals were conceded across these warm-up matches, and three arrived in a 3-2 defeat to Saturday's opponents Koln.
However, many players were missing during that schedule and youngsters were relied upon before the main men returned for the season opener last week away to Borussia Monchengladbach.
Bayern played out a 1-1 draw in their new manager's first competitive match for his new side, despite falling behind inside 10 minutes after struggling to get going.
After growing into the game and finding their stride, there were no surprises as to who scored the equaliser - Robert Lewandowski got his season off and running after his record-breaking season last year.
Following on from there, Bayern certainly looked their usual selves in midweek as they beat Borussia Dortmund 3-1 in the first Der Klassiker of the season to lift the Super Cup. Lewandowski added another two goals to take his tally to three for the season already.
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Unlike their hosts, Koln got their new Bundesliga season off to a winning start on the opening weekend last week.
An impressive performance saw them triumph 3-1 at home to Hertha Berlin, despite falling behind just five minutes in. Anthony Modeste equalised before Florian Kainz scored the winning goals with a second-half brace within three minutes of each.
New manager Steffen Baumgart, who has arrived from SC Paderborn this summer, will have been pleased with his side's spirit to come from a goal down, whilst also seeing his team dominate possession of the ball as well.
However, the task could not be any more difficult on Sunday as they travel to the reigning champions - a side they have lost to in their last seven competitive meetings.
There is no pressure on the visitors though, as these matches will not be the ones that define their season. They will be looking to improve on the struggles of last campaign, where their stay in the Bundesliga was only maintained through a relegation playoff win over Holstein Kiel.
One positive that Koln can certainly take into this daunting task at the weekend is the fact that they managed to beat the hosts 3-2 in a pre-season friendly only one month ago.
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Team News
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Bayern continue to miss French defensive duo Lucas Hernandez and Benjamin Pavard for the visit of Koln on Sunday.
Hernandez remains missing with a knee injury that has seen him miss the entire pre-season, whilst Pavard only managed 45 minutes in the final friendly against Napoli, and has been unavailable with an ankle injury since.
This means that young right-back Josip Stanisic will continue to deputise for Pavard in the defence.
Kingsley Coman's latest injury problems saw him replaced early in the second half against Dortmund in midweek, so Leroy Sane should take his place in the wide forward position.
Number one goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has missed training this week with an ankle problem, so is a doubt for the game and means there is a rare opportunity in goal for Sven Ulreich.
Meanwhile, the visitors have far fewer problems to deal with in terms of injuries compared to their hosts.
Three players have been ruled out for the trip to the Allianz Arena - defenders Jannes Horn and Timo Hubers are missing with hip and knee injuries respectively, whilst spare goalkeeper Marvin Schwabe is struggling with a hand injury.
Manager Steffen Baumgart will not be too concerned with these absentees, though.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Ulreich; Stanisic, Upamecano, Sule, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Muller, Gnabry; Lewandowski
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T Horn; Schmitz, Mere, Czichos, Hector; Skhiri; Thielmann, Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
We say: Bayern Munich 4-1 FC Koln
We can see this fixture on Sunday going only one way, unfortunately for Koln. The difference in quality of the two sides is far too great, particularly with it being at the Allianz Arena.
Lewandowski will be expected to bag himself at least one more goal to add to his early tally of three after just two matches.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 60.33%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 20.74% and a draw had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.29%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (5.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
