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Bayern logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 28
Apr 10, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Union Berlin logo

Bayern
1 - 1
Union Berlin

Musiala (68')
Sarr (76'), Kouassi (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Union Berlin - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Union Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayern Munich take on Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the visitors looking to spring an upset and remain in seventh place in the table.

The home team, meanwhile, will be assured of a ninth successive Bundesliga title if they win five of their remaining seven league matches.


Match preview

Leon Goretzka in action for Bayern Munich in September 2020© Reuters

Indeed, Bayern surely have one hand on the title after their crucial 1-0 win at RB Leipzig last weekend.

Julian Nagelsmann's side entered the match knowing that a win would have taken them one point behind the Bavarians, but instead Bayern now have a seemingly insurmountable seven-point lead at the top of the table.

Despite missing top goalscorer Robert Lewandowski through injury, Bayern still had the greater cutting edge of the two sides, with Thomas Muller's clever run, touch, turn and pass finding Leon Goretzka on the edge of the area, with the midfielder smashing the ball past Peter Gulacsi in trademark fashion.

Leroy Sane almost doubled his side's lead moments before the half-time interval, with his fizzing volley from outside of the area diverted away from danger by Gulacsi.

Bayern rode their luck at times during the second half, though, with Marcel Sabitzer twice coming close to equalising, but Hansi Flick's side ultimately held on for a crucial victory.

However, they suffered a major setback in midweek in terms of retaining their Champions League crown, losing 3-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their quarter-final tie.

Kylian Mbappe's pace and finishing quality proved too hot for them to handle on the night, with Bayern clearly missing Lewandowski as they failed to turn their dominance - as evidenced by them having 31 shots and 64% possession - into more than two goals.

Union Berlin coach Urs Fischer reacts in February 2021© Reuters

Union Berlin, meanwhile, had one of the biggest matches of their season last weekend, too, when facing their city rivals Hertha Berlin.

Having lost 3-1 in the reverse fixture, Urs Fischer would have drilled into his players the importance of at least avoiding falling to a league double to a side which are 14 points behind them in the table.

Robert Andrich, who was sent off in the first half of the defeat to Hertha in December at a time when Union Berlin were leading 1-0, redeemed himself with a thunderous strike from outside of the area to provide his side with a ninth-minute lead.

However, Marvin Friedrich's clumsy challenge on Matteo Guendouzi allowed Dodi Lukebakio to equalise from the penalty spot prior to half time, with both rivals seemingly settling for a share of the spoils in a dour second half.

Only the top four teams in the division have lost fewer games than Fischer's side this season, though, with a Europa League qualification spot still up for grabs for them.

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Union Berlin Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski reacts on January 17, 2021© Reuters

Lewandowski is set to miss most of April's action with a knee injury, although the 32-year-old has been known to be a faster healer than most players in the past.

Eric Choupo-Moting deputised for the Poland striker at Leipzig last weekend and will almost certainly be trusted by Flick in attack once again, especially having scored against his former club PSG in midweek, and with Serge Gnabry ruled out due to a positive COVID-19 test during the week.

Alphonso Davies must serve one more match of his two-game suspension, having been sent off against Stuttgart prior to the international break, but Jerome Boateng came on to replace Niklas Sule against PSG and could start here.

Sule and Goretzka were both prematurely substituted in midweek due to suspected muscle injuries and are unlikely to be risked.

Indeed, it would be no surprise to see Flick rest as many key players as he feels he is able to ahead of the second leg against PSG on Tuesday, with Javi Martinez, Bouna Sarr and Jamal Musiala potentially providing options to allow the likes of Goretzka, Benjamin Pavard and Muller a breather.

Marc Roca, Corentin Tolisso, Douglas Costa, Malik Tillman and Ron-Thorben Hoffmann are all unlikely to feature due to injury, though.

Union Berlin, meanwhile, continue to suffer in attack without the injured duo of Sheraldo Becker and Liverpool loanee Taiwo Awoniyi.

Petar Musa, who is on loan from Slavia Prague until the end of the season, failed to impress alongside Max Kruse in the Berlin derby, so Joel Pohjanpalo and Marcus Ingvartsen could return to the starting XI, with Christian Gentner also dropping out.

Niko Giesselmann and Anthony Ujah are also unlikely to travel to Munich due to shoulder and knee injuries respectively.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Sarr, Boateng, Alaba, Hernandez; Martinez, Kimmich; Sane, Musiala, Coman; Choupo-Moting

Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Schlotterbeck; Trimmel, Andrich, Promel, Ingvartsen, Ryerson; Pohjanpalo, Kruse


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 2-1 Union Berlin

Union Berlin could be facing Bayern at the best possible moment given that the match is directly sandwiched between Bayern's tricky Champions League tie against PSG.

However, Bayern have enviable depth and quality to call upon and should be able to get the job done despite Fischer's side proving a tough opponent to beat this season.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 76.34%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 9.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (2.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Bayern vs Union Berlin

Bayern Munich
80.3%
Draw
14.1%
Union Berlin
5.6%
71
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1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
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18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


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