Seeking to stretch their 17-game unbeaten run, AZ Alkmaar welcome Heracles to the AFAS Stadion on Saturday in round 23 of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season.
Heracles, on the other hand, are aiming to record consecutive league wins for the first time since October and exact revenge for a 4-1 defeat in the reverse fixture.
Match preview
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AZ Alkmaar claimed a third straight victory in the last eight days courtesy of a comfortable 4-1 triumph over Go Ahead Eagles at De Adelaarshorst on Sunday.
Two goals apiece from Sam Beukema and Vangelis Pavlidis secured a well-deserved three points for Pascal Jansen's men in Deventer after Luuk Brouwers had opened the scoring in the 25th minute.
As a result, The Cheeseheads have leapfrogged FC Twente to move up to fourth place in the Eredivisie table with 12 rounds of matches left to play.
Lying in store next is the visit of an opposing outfit who have lost five of the last six meetings between the teams since 2019 by a combined score of 15-3.
Saturday's hosts have dropped just seven points in 10 home matches this term, with their only defeat coming against PSV Eindhoven back in September.
Heracles picked up their first league win of 2022 by narrowly edging out FC Utrecht 1-0 when the sides faced off at the Erve Asito on Friday.
Kaj Sierhuis opened the scoring eight minutes from the end of regulation time to propel Frank Wormuth's men over the line in Almelo.
The Heraclieden sit 12th in the league standings at the moment and are four points clear of danger heading into this weekend's contest.
Saturday's visitors are the only team in the entire division yet to record an away triumph, and now is as good a time as any to end that barren run.
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Team News
Despite netting the winner against Utrecht, Kaj Sierhuis is not expected to feature this weekend as he picked up a knee injury in the aforementioned game.
Ismail Azzaoui and Elias Oubella are also sidelined with knee problems, while 21-year-old Mateo Les continues to nurse a torn muscle.
Vangelis Pavlidis has scored four times in his last five outings and is now closing in on his personal best of 11 league goals which he managed last season.
Jesper Karlsson ran the show in the reverse fixture where he netted twice, making the Swedish winger one to look out for in this one.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Beukema, Sugawara; Clasie, Midtsjo, De Wit; Karlsson, Pavlidis, Evjen
Heracles possible starting lineup:
Blaswich; Quagliata, Knoester, Rente, Fadiga; Schoofs, Kiomourtzoglou, De la Torre; Laursen, Basacikoglu, Szoke
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Heracles
Judging by recent results, AZ are nailed on favourites to come out on top this weekend, and we expect them to live up to expectations in what should be a routine victory for the home side.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 84.71%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 4.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.55%) and 1-0 (10.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.17%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (1.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
