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Atletico Mineiro
Brasileiro | Gameweek 19
Nov 4, 2021 at 12am UK
Mineirão
Gremio

Atletico Mineiro
2 - 1
Gremio

Zaracho (12'), Vargas (75' pen.)
Zaracho (45+3'), Tche (50'), Fernandez (53'), Mariano (78'), Rodrigues de Souza (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Campaz (56')
Silva (36'), Borja (38'), Geromel (58'), Campaz (73'), Costa (81'), Rafinha (90+5')

Preview: Atletico Mineiro vs. Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Brasileiro clash between Atletico Mineiro and Gremio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Atletico Mineiro had their gap at the top of the Brasileiro shrunk at the weekend when they were defeated by Flamengo, and the squad will now look to bounce back immediately when they host Gremio on Thursday.

The visitors currently find themselves in the relegation zone, four points adrift of safety, but with two games in hand on the three teams above, there is an opportunity to push them.


Match preview

Atletico Mineiro coach Cuca reacts on August 23, 2021© Reuters

Atletico Mineiro have been dominant throughout the Brasileiro this season, which has led them to the top of the league, sitting seven points clear.

However, after a defeat against third-placed Flamengo, the club will be keen to get back to winning ways immediately to maintain their lead on the chasing pack.

Defensively, no team in the division have been stronger than Cuca's squad, having conceded just 21 times across their league campaign so far.

Yet they have been just as ruthless in the attack, with Sunday's fixture being the first time they have failed to score in nine consecutive games.

Atletico Mineiro are also fresh from reaching the Copa do Brasil final, having defeated Fortaleza 6-1 on aggregate, which will no doubt have breathed plenty of confidence into the group.

Gremio's Matheus Henrique celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 25, 2021© Reuters

On the other hand, Gremio are lacking in momentum and belief as they currently sit in the relegation zone with seven points separating them and Bahia, who are 16th in the table.

Having only won seven games throughout the season, the club have found things tough, but considering the fact they have at least two games in hand on the teams around them, they are still in a good position.

Should Vagner Mancini's side be able to pick up points in those games, there is an opportunity for them to climb the table, but they will need to improve upon their previous two performances.

Gremio have been defeated in both of their most recent outings, conceding five goals and scoring only one in the process.

At the weekend they competed against Palmeiras and the team got off to a perfect start when Diego Souza found the back of the net in the 12th minute, but they were unable to hang on, eventually being defeated 3-1.

Having conceded 35 goals already this season, Thursday is sure to bring a major test of their defensive capabilities, but if Gremio are to survive, the need to be resilient is clear.

Atletico Mineiro Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Atletico Mineiro form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Gremio Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Gremio form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Atletico Mineiro coach Cuca during the match on May 19, 2021© Reuters

The league leaders currently have a fit squad, with full-back Mariano having made his return at the weekend, appearing from the bench to get some minutes following his groin problem.

Allan was also brought back into the starting lineup after being rested in the previous fixture, while Cuca opted not to start Diego Costa in the recent 1-0 defeat, with the experienced striker likely to be in contention to feature on Thursday.

The visitors will still be without Paulo Miranda as he continues to serve a suspension following a recent red card and that should lead to Pedro Geromel retaining his place in the team.

Mancini also opted to bring in Bruno Cortez at full-back on Sunday, and he could be used once again, although Rafinha will remain an option for the Gremio boss.

Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Silva, Alonso, Arana; Allan, Jair; Keno, Zaracho, Fernandez; Hulk

Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Vanderson, Geremol, Kannemann, Cortez; Villasanti, Santos; Alisson, Pyerre, Costa; Souza


SM words green background

We say: Atletico Mineiro 4-0 Gremio

Two teams at the opposite ends of the table, both of which have something important to fight for should lead to a game of high energy and intensity.

However, Atletico Mineiro should have more than enough quality to earn a comfortable three points in midweek, with their attacking options simply being too strong.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:468933:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9362:
Written by
Matthew Wilkinson

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 63.24%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 14.78%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio

Atletico Mineiro
81.3%
Draw
12.5%
Gremio
6.3%
16
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Palmeiras team huddle before the match on June 28, 2021
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo382310559293079
2PalmeirasPalmeiras38227960332773
3FlamengoFlamengo382010861421970
4FortalezaFortaleza381911853391468
5InternacionalInternacional381811953361765
6Sao Paulo381781353431059
7Corinthians381511125445956
8Bahia38158154949053
9Cruzeiro381410144341252
10Vasco da GamaVasco38148164356-1350
11Vitoria38138174552-747
12Atletico Mineiro381114134754-747
13Fluminense381210163339-646
14Gremio38129174450-645
15JuventudeJuventude381112154859-1145
16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
20Cuiaba38612202949-2030


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