Atletico Mineiro can move a step closer to their second Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A title when they host Corinthians on Wednesday at Mineirao.
Galo have scored their last two winning goals in the second half, and they are currently holding a 10-point cushion at the top of the table, while Corinthians are for the moment in a qualifying position for the Copa Libertadores next year, but with an opportunity to potentially move up to fourth place with a win over the league leaders.
Match preview
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Mineiro are inching closer to their first Serie A title since 1971, winning consecutive matches by a single goal, thanks to some good second-half adjustments.
The sting of coming up just short a year ago, finishing in third, just three points behind the champions Flamengo, left a bitter taste in the mouths of these players, who were in first place heading into Matchday 24 in 2020.
They brought back an experienced manager with a proven track record for winning, and the appointment of Cuca has paid off, as the man who guided them to the Copa Libertadores trophy in 2013 has them poised to end a lengthy domestic league drought, which would be the first one for the 58-year-old from Curitiba as a coach.
Their last five games in all competitions were decided by a single goal, with the side from Belo Horizonte coming out on top four times.
Defensively they have been a difficult side to break down, allowing only 22 goals so far this year, the fewest among top-flight clubs as their backline have rarely given their opponents some good looks at their goal.
While they have an established number nine in Hulk, who leads the team with 12 strikes in league play, they can make life difficult in the middle of the field, traditionally employing a pair of holding midfielders and another three players a little higher up the pitch.
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Atletico are not the only side who know a thing or two about playing in tight games, as Sylvinho and his Corinthians players have been involved in their share of one-goal affairs in recent weeks.
Holding the lead for long stretches did not work so well for them a couple of weeks ago, as they dropped two points in a 2-2 draw with Internacional, conceding in the 93rd minute after taking the lead from the penalty spot with just over 20 minutes to play.
While it is not what they are striving for, it seems that leaving as little time as possible for their opponents to come back has been highly effective, winning their previous two encounters thanks to goals beyond the 87th minute of play.
This team can employ a variety of different formations effectively from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1, but regardless of how they line up, their midfielders are incredibly hard-working, and they are used to getting a lot of touches, having more possession than their opponents in virtually all of their matches this year.
Missing out on the main South American club competition this season, the Copa Libertadores, was a bitter pill to swallow for Corinthians, and if they can maintain their current form, it would assure that they do not miss out on that competition once again.
At the moment, Corinthians are holding down the final qualifying position for that tournament, but they are only two points behind Braga for fourth which would guarantee that this team competes in the group stage of that event next year.
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Team News
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In the previous meeting between these sides back in January, Mineiro got a brace from Hulk, who comes into this game tied with Yuri Alberto for second in the league in goals (11) and also even with David Terans, Edenilson and Lucas Crispim for third in assists with seven.
Guilherme Arana had the winner on Sunday, his first of the year, as Everson now has 13 clean sheets to lead all goalkeepers in Serie A.
Over the weekend, Mariano replaced Guga at right-back, Nathan Silva started in place of Rever, Jefferson Savarino and Eduardo Vargas were in the starting 11 instead of Diego Costa and Matias Zaracho.
Fagner will not be available for this upcoming contest as the Corinthians right-back received a yellow card on Saturday, so expect to see Joao Pedro take his place in the team on Wednesday.
Cassio replaced Matheus Donelli in goal this weekend, and he got plenty of help defensively as the back four of Fagner, Joao Victor, Gil and Fabio Santos only conceded two shots on target, helping the 34-year-old goalkeeper to his ninth clean sheet of the season.
Victor Cantillo scored his second of the campaign, which held up as the winner, putting him one behind Adson and Roni, who are tied for third on the team.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, N. Silva, Alonso, Arana; Tche Tche, Allan; Hyoran, Nathan; Costa, Hulk
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Pedro, Victor, Gil, Fabio Santos; Adson, Gabriel; Vitinho, Giuliano, G. Silva; Augusto
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Corinthians
The last five contests between these sides were decided by a single goal, with Mineiro coming out on top in the previous four, mainly because they have had just a bit more quality in front of goal, and that appears to be the case heading into this matchup on Wednesday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 60.04%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 16.76%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.97%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
