Atletico Madrid will be bidding to strengthen their grip on a top-four spot in La Liga when they head to San Mames on Saturday evening to take on Athletic Bilbao.
Diego Simeone's side are currently fourth in the table, four points clear of fifth-placed Real Betis, while Athletic occupy eighth, seven points behind sixth-placed Real Sociedad in the race for a European finish.
Match preview
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Athletic will enter Saturday's contest off the back of a 3-2 victory at Cadiz last time out, with first-half goals from Raul Garcia, Iker Muniain and Mikel Vesga proving enough to secure all three points despite the relegation-threatened hosts launching a late response at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Marcelino's side currently sit eighth in the table, now just four points behind seventh-placed Villarreal, but they are seven points behind sixth-placed Real Sociedad, so a Europa League spot looks beyond them.
The Basque outfit have not finished higher than eighth in Spain's top flight since 2017, so seventh would certainly be a big step in the right direction, and they will fancy their chances of picking up a respectable amount of points in their final five games of the campaign.
Athletic have matches against top-four outfits Atletico and Sevilla, in addition to facing Valencia, Granada and Osasuna, with three of their final five games coming in front of their own supporters.
The Lions have secured 27 points from their 16 home league games this term and will be taking on an Atletico side that have been inconsistent on their travels this season, picking up just 24 points from their 16 fixtures away from Wanda Metropolitano.
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Atletico have been unable to defend their La Liga title this season, and bitter rivals Real Madrid could actually win the league this weekend; Simeone's side are instead focusing on securing a top-four spot, currently sitting fourth in the table, four points ahead of fifth-placed Real Betis.
The Red and Whites are just two points behind second-placed Barcelona, meanwhile, and the runners-up spot in the league would go down as a successful campaign considering their issues during stages of the season.
Atletico have only won one of their last three in the league and will enter this match off the back of a goalless draw at home to Granada on April 20.
Simeone's side will welcome Real Madrid to Wanda Metropolitano on May 8, with Los Blancos potentially being champions by that point, before taking on Elche, Sevilla and Real Sociedad in their final three matches of the campaign, so a top-four spot is not secure due to the strength of their fixture list.
Los Colchoneros have actually only won one of their last four league meetings with Athletic, suffering a 2-1 loss in the corresponding match last term, while the two teams played out a goalless draw at Wanda Metropolitano earlier this season.
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Team News
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Athletic will be missing Alex Petxa, Oihan Sancet, Asier Villalibre and Inigo Lekue through injury this weekend, while Mikel Vesga is out for the Basque club through suspension.
Vesga's absence, courtesy of his red card against Cadiz last time out, will open the door for Unai Vencedor to feature alongside Dani Garcia in the middle of the park.
There could also be a change at right-back, with Yuri Berchiche potentially coming in for Oscar de Marcos, but Nico Williams and Raul Garcia should both keep their spots in the starting side.
Atletico, meanwhile, will be boosted by the returns of both Felipe and Geoffrey Kondogbia, with the pair missing out against Granada through suspension, and they are expected to feature in the starting side.
Joao Felix, Thomas Lemar, Hector Herrera and Jose Gimenez are all injured, though, and the visitors will also be without the services of Stefan Savic through suspension.
Head coach Simeone has a decision to make in attack, with Luis Suarez and Angel Correa battling to start alongside Antoine Griezmann, but Marcos Llorente and Yannick Carrasco should continue in the wing-back positions for the Spanish champions.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; Yuri, Vivian, Martinez, Balenziaga; N Williams, D Garcia, Vencedor, Muniain; I Williams, R Garcia
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Felipe, Hermoso, Reinildo; Llorente, De Paul, Kondogbia, Koke, Carrasco; Griezmann, Correa
We say: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Only Cadiz (13) have drawn more league matches than Athletic (12) this season, and we fancy the Basque outfit to secure a share of the spoils here. Atletico need to win to strengthen their grip on a top-four spot, but the champions struggled against Granada last time out and might have to settle for another point.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
