Athletic Bilbao will be looking to return to winning ways in Spain's top flight when they travel to an out-of-form Cadiz outfit on Monday night.
The visitors are currently 11th in the table, having picked up 25 points from 21 matches this season, while Cadiz, who were in and around the European spots late last year, have now dropped into 14th.
Match preview
© Reuters
There is no getting away from the fact that Cadiz's recent form has been disappointing, with the newly-promoted side losing four of their last five in all competitions and each of their last three in the league, conceding 11 times in defeats to Sevilla, Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad.
As mentioned, Cadiz have dropped from the top half of the table into 14th, now just four points clear of the relegation zone, but it has still been a solid campaign for a team back at this level for the first time since 2006.
Any position 17th or higher would be considered a successful season, with Alvaro Cervera's side determined to consolidate at this level, and they have recorded some standout results this term, notably overcoming both Barcelona and Real Madrid.
El Submarino Amarillo will be wary of suffering another defeat on Monday ahead of a trip to Barca on February 21, and the team's home form this season has been disappointing, picking up just two victories from 11 matches, suffering five defeats in the process.
© Reuters
Athletic, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Valencia in the league last weekend; Hugo Guillamon's own goal had sent the Basque side ahead in the latter stages of the first period, but Gabriel Paulista came up with an equaliser for Los Che in the 65th minute.
A record of seven wins, four draws and 10 defeats from 21 matches has seen Marcelino's side collect 25 points, leaving them in 11th position in the table, although there is a strong chance that the picture will have changed by the time that they take to the field for this contest.
Athletic were also in Copa del Rey semi-final action on Thursday, playing out a 1-1 draw with Levante in the first leg of the contest at San Mames, leaving the tie delicately poised ahead of the return clash.
Los Leones will already face Real Sociedad in the 2020 Copa del Rey final at the start of April, with the match being postponed last year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Marcelino's side must first address their inconsistent league form, though, as they have only won one of their last four in Spain's top flight, losing twice to Barca during that run.
Cadiz La Liga form: DWDLLL
Cadiz form (all competitions): WLDLLL
Athletic Bilbao La Liga form: LWLWLD
Athletic Bilbao form (all competitions): WWLWDD
Team News
© Reuters
Cadiz will be without the services of Marcos Mauro through suspension, with the centre-back receiving straight red card against Sociedad, meaning that Pedro Alcala could partner Juan Cala in the middle of the defence.
Augusto Fernandez, Jens Jonsson, Carlos Akapo and Luismi Quezada are all injured, meanwhile, and the home side could also be without both Jose Mari and Alex Fernandez.
Anthony Lozano and Alvaro Negredo should continue as the front two in a 4-4-2 formation, while Jon Garrido is likely to come into the midfield as a replacement for Jonsson.
As for Athletic, Marcelino could decide to freshen his midfield from the clash against Levante, with Unai Lopez and Mikel Vesga potentially earning starts in the middle of the park.
Inaki Williams and Raul Garcia should continue as the front two, though, while Oscar de Marcos is likely to be given the nod down the right, with Alex Berenguer starting on the bench once again.
Asier Villalibre is also an option for change in an attacking position, but Marcelino is expected to resist the temptation to make wholesale changes from the Copa del Rey semi-final.
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Iza, Alcala, Cala, Espino; Sanchez, Garrido, Fali, Perea; Negredo, Lozano
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; Capa, Alvarez, Martinez, Berchiche; De Marcos, Lopez, Vesga, Muniain; Williams, R Garcia
We say: Cadiz 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
Athletic's away record is actually the worst in the league this season, winning just one of their 10 matches on their travels. Cadiz have suffered three straight defeats in Spain's top flight, though, and we can see the two teams settling for a draw on Monday night.
Top betting tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 42.18%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 29.55% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
