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Atalanta logo
Serie A | Gameweek 22
Jan 16, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia
Inter logo

Atalanta
0 - 0
Inter Milan


de Roon (37'), Luis Palomino (84')
FT

Brozovic (42'), Calhanoglu (62')

Preview: Atalanta BC vs. Inter Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Inter Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Following hot on the heels of their dramatic midweek success, Inter Milan continue their Scudetto defence on Sunday evening, when they visit local rivals Atalanta BC.

The teams will contest a Lombardy derby in which the Nerazzurri have historically held the upper hand, and they will arrive in Bergamo having secured the first silverware of the season by lifting the Supercoppa Italiana.


Match preview

Inter Milan's Alexis Sanchez celebrates winning the Italian Super Cup with teammates on January 12, 2022© Reuters

Inter's revival continues apace, as coach Simone Inzaghi claimed his first trophy for the club since taking over from title-winning predecessor Antonio Conte in the summer with Supercoppa success on Wednesday.

In just the second ever Derby d'Italia to be played in the contest between Serie A champions and Coppa Italia winners, arch-rivals Juventus ultimately came off second best to the side which last year dethroned them as kings of Calcio.

With the final kick of a match apparently destined for a penalty shootout, Inter substitute Alexis Sanchez sealed the league champions' first Supercoppa since 2010 by turning home a 121st-minute winner at San Siro.

After that high, they must resume Serie A duty on Sunday, having gone unbeaten in 12 consecutive top-flight games, after a triumph 2-1 over Lazio last week helped them stay a point clear of city rivals Milan at the top of the table.

Maximum points were secured at the expense of Inzaghi's former club, as a powerful Milan Skriniar header decided a close contest in Inter's favour - gaining a measure of revenge for their only league loss of the campaign to the Aquile back in October.

As they now make the short trip to Bergamo, they will be seeking to score in a 40th straight Serie A fixture, which would be just the third time any team have done so in the competition's long history. Indeed, the Nerazzurri are one of only two teams to have scored in each of their league games across the top five European leagues this term, along with Bayern Munich.

Two of their 51-goal haul so far - arriving at an average of over 2.5 per game - came in a 2-2 draw in their most recent meeting with this week's opponents: September's reverse fixture at San Siro.

Atalanta's Mario Pasalic celebrates scoring their first goal with Luis Muriel, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Berat Djimsiti, Teun Koopmeiners and teammates on January 9, 2022© Reuters

Despite claiming a point from their latest tussle with their more illustrious neighbours, Atalanta are without a win in the clubs' last six Serie A encounters - drawing four and losing two.

For a side associated with free-scoring football, they have surprisingly been held goalless on three of those occasions, and are now looking for their first league victory in this all-Lombardy affair since November 2018.

In all, La Dea have won less than 20% of their top-flight meetings against the current champions under Gian Piero Gasperini, who once had a short-lived spell in the San Siro dugout.

There is no doubt that for all their progress in recent years, the Bergamaschi still have an inferiority complex when it comes to their fellow Nerazzurri outfit, and they currently sit fourth in the table - eight points behind the leaders.

Fifth-placed Juve are just three points behind them heading into the weekend's action, so the pressure to perform remains intense, even after winning their last league match 6-2 away to Udinese. Following the cancellation of their opening fixture versus Torino, the Orobici began 2022 in fine style thanks to an opening strike from Mario Pasalic and Luis Muriel's double, among others.

Gasperini then led his team into a midweek Coppa Italia tie, when Muriel was again on target for a much-changed XI in their 2-0 victory over Venezia. Having secured a place in the quarter-finals, Atalanta will continue their quest for a first Coppa triumph since 1963 next month, having finished as runners-up in two of the last three years.

First, though, they resume league action at the Gewiss Stadium, where they have won just three home matches in Serie A this season. A modest tally of 12 points on home soil is at least five fewer than any other side currently in the top eight, so a quick change of fortunes is needed if they are to secure a positive outcome from Sunday's game.

Atalanta BC Serie A form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Atalanta BC form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Inter Milan Serie A form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Inter Milan form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Inter Milan forward Edin Dzeko pictured on November 24, 2021© Reuters

Having returned to action at the weekend after a spell in self-isolation with COVID-19, Inter striker Edin Dzeko should again feature up front, most likely joining his regular partner Lautaro Martinez. The Bosnian forward has previously scored seven times against Atalanta in Serie A; against no other side has he recorded more.

Suspension ruled Hakan Calhanoglu out of the win over Lazio, but his return to league action will enable Simone Inzaghi to retain his favoured midfield trio, with Marcelo Brozovic and Nicolo Barella also set for the visitors' engine room.

The champions are in the fortunate position of having no known absentees ahead of the game, but it has been suggested that Denzel Dumfries may be rotated out of the starting XI - offering an opportunity to Matteo Darmian - and Suppercoppa hero Alexis Sanchez is in contention to start ahead of Martinez.

Atalanta, meanwhile, hope to have Berat Djimsiti back in the fold after he went off injured last weekend, while captain Rafael Toloi and Ruslan Malinovskyi are among those set to be restored to the lineup after Gian Piero Gasperini made a number of changes in midweek. Therefore, teenage defender Giorgio Scalvini is likely to drop to the bench.

Wing-back Robin Gosens and star striker Duvan Zapata are still out injured for the home side, with Marco Sportiello, Davide Zappacosta and Roberto Piccoli considered doubtful.

Despite being an irregular starter in Serie A, Mario Pasalic is the midfielder with the most goals from open play throughout the top five European leagues this season, currently on eight. However, Inter are the side against which the Croatia international - who goes head-to-head with Matteo Pessina for a place in support of Luis Muriel - has appeared the most times without contributing to a single goal.

Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Toloi, Demiral, Palomino; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Pezzella; Pasalic, Malinovskyi; Muriel

Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Perisic; Martinez, Dzeko


SM words green background

We say: Atalanta BC 2-2 Inter Milan

Atalanta rarely sit back against the top sides, and Inter have opened the scoring more often than any other team in Serie A this season - on 16 occasions - so this enticing encounter could be explosive right from the kickoff.

Therefore, a repeat of the scoreline the pair produced in a thunderous first meeting of the season a few months ago is in prospect - with a score draw the likeliest result.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (5.6%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 1-2 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Atalanta vs Inter Milan

Atalanta BC
23.6%
Draw
19.8%
Inter Milan
56.6%
182
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Inter Milan coach Simone Inzaghi on January 12, 2022
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta15111338172134
2Napoli15102321101132
3Inter Milan1494134151931
4Fiorentina1494128101831
5Lazio15101430171331
6Juventus1569024101427
7AC Milan146442416822
8Bologna145722018222
9Udinese156271822-420
10Empoli154741415-119
11Roma154471821-316
12Torino154471620-416
13Parma153662125-415
14Genoa153661324-1115
15CagliariCagliari153571525-1014
16Lecce15348826-1813
17Como152671628-1212
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1540111837-1912
19Monza151771319-610
20VeneziaVenezia1523101327-149


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