In danger of dropping off the pace in the race for a top four finish, Atalanta BC will seek just a second Serie A win in nine matches when they host Genoa on Sunday.
La Dea welcome the league's draw specialists to Bergamo sitting six points off fourth spot but with a game still in hand, so victory is essential with games starting to run out.
Match preview
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Having lost three of their last five league games - as many as in their previous 22 - Atalanta are experiencing some significant turbulence for the first time in several months.
After crashing out of the Coppa Italia last month, they have gone on to win just one of their next four Serie A fixtures - including a 1-0 loss to Roma last Saturday.
Tammy Abraham's first-half goal split the sides at Stadio Olimpico; allowing their capital counterparts to close a once yawning gap between the teams entirely. Only goal difference separates Atalanta from slipping to sixth place - and both Lazio and Fiorentina are not far behind.
As a result, the Bergamaschi now face a springtime scrap to return to the Champions League, and will also have to shape up quickly if they are to preserve their status as regular European qualifiers through a top-six finish.
Curiously enough, most of their troubles have come at the Gewiss Stadium this season, and Gian Piero Gasperini's side currently possess the highest negative difference between points gained at home (17) and away (30) across the top five European leagues.
Nevertheless, the Nerazzurri were back at full tilt on Thursday night, as struggling striker Luis Muriel bagged a brace in a 3-2 first-leg victory over Bundesliga high-fliers Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League.
The Colombian's last top-flight goal on home turf came as long ago as November, so the former Sampdoria star would like nothing better than to continue his revival at the expense of Genoa on Sunday.
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Ahead of their trip to Lombardy this weekend, Genoa have won just one of their last 12 Serie A meetings with Atalanta - and none since December 2018.
Having held their counterparts goalless at Marassi just before the winter break - and drawn each of their last two matches at the Gewiss Stadium - they will be hoping to improve their recent reputation as single-point specialists this time around.
Genoa could draw seven matches in a row for the first time in their top-flight history if they share the spoils again on Sunday evening, and in the last 30 years, only Inter have drawn that many matches consecutively - back in 2004.
Following last week's stalemate with Empoli, the Grifone have also gone winless for 25 league games - drawing on 15 occasions - and only three teams in Serie A history have recorded a longer streak without success.
Though new coach Alexander Blessin has certainly tightened the Ligurians' up since taking charge, Genoa have scored just twice in their last seven outings, so it is clear why they remain mired in relegation trouble: sitting 19th, and seven points adrift of safety. Without a change of fortunes in the final third, then, Serie B beckons.
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Team News
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Having taken charge of over 200 matches at both clubs, former Genoa coach Gian Piero Gasperini will have to reshuffle his Atalanta XI at least a little after Thursday's Europa League exertions.
Following his dismissal in the dying moments against Roma, midfield mainstay Marten De Roon misses out through suspension, so fellow Netherlands international Teun Koopmeiners should start in his place.
Though Gasperini has tended to use a 'false nine' in Duvan Zapata's ongoing absence, Luis Muriel could once again start up front after his midweek heroics. Alternatively, either Jeremie Boga or Mario Pasalic would fill in.
Already struggling for goals, Genoa could be without forwards Caleb Ekuban and Roberto Piccoli on Sunday, while Andrea Cambiaso, Domenico Criscito, Zinho Vanheusden and Andrea Masiello are all ruled out by injury.
In addition, Alexander Blessin will have midfield pair Nicolo Rovella and Stefano Sturaro sidelined due to suspension, so January signings Nadiem Amiri and Morten Frendrup will be among those pushing for a start in their absence.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Toloi, Demiral, Palomino; Hateboer, Koopmeiners, Freuler, Maehle; Pessina; Malinovskyi, Boga
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Hefti, Vasquez, Ostigard, Calafiori; Badelj, Portanova; Gudmundsson, Amiri, Yeboah; Destro
We say: Atalanta BC 2-0 Genoa
Further limited by absences this week, Genoa only score at a rate of less than a goal per game, so make ideal opponents for an Atalanta side trying to regain their ebbing confidence.
Not only should La Dea end their visitors' streak of successive draws, they will also prolong the Grifone's winless run still further - in the process, keeping themselves in touch with the top four.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 85.63%. A draw had a probability of 10% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 4.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 4-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.75%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (1.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
