West Ham United will seek to maintain their top-four charge when they welcome Arsenal to the London Stadium for a crucial capital derby in the Premier League this Sunday.
The hosts currently sit fifth in the table, where Arsenal would have expected to be - while Mikel Arteta's men sit in mid-table obscurity, where West Ham were overwhelmingly predicted to finish.
Match preview
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David Moyes's second return to Old Trafford in the space of a month was hardly a joyous occasion for the experienced Scotsman, who has now tried and failed three times to get one over the two Manchester giants away from home since the start of February.
Having already suffered a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup and a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in the Premier League, West Ham came away empty-handed from another trip to the North West last Sunday, as an unfortunate own goal from defensive stalwart Craig Dawson was enough for Moyes's former club to take the spoils at Old Trafford.
While the capital outfit have now lost two of their last three - with a 2-0 win over Leeds United sandwiched in between their two Manchester defeats - they remain firmly in contention for a Champions League berth as they sit three points adrift of fourth-placed Chelsea, who have played a game more, although they are incredibly unlikely to force their way into the top four due to the Blues' superior goal difference.
Furthermore, Moyes's team welcome Arsenal to a stadium where they have lost just one of their last nine in all competitions - winning six of their last seven and their last three on the bounce - and having already beaten one North London giant in Tottenham Hotspur on home soil this season, there is no reason why West Ham cannot repeat such a feat this weekend.
The late Glenn Roeder was the last manager to guide West Ham to four consecutive home victories in the league back in 2002, so Moyes would dearly love to follow in the footsteps of the former Hammers boss, but as evidenced by their derby performances this term, Arteta's Arsenal are no pushovers.
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Arsenal and Tottenham both suffered disappointing Europa League second-leg defeats on Thursday evening to Olympiacos and Dinamo Zagreb respectively. However, while Spurs' 3-0 defeat saw them crash out of the tournament, Arsenal managed to book their spot in the quarter-finals despite a 1-0 loss on the night.
In a turn of events that many Gooners were dreading, Emirates villain Youssef El Arabi once again made the net ripple in North London - although he was helped by a significant deflection - and while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in particular endured a dreadful evening in front of goal, Arsenal's dominant first-leg victory helped them progress 3-2 on aggregate.
It was hardly a memorable performance from Arteta's side, whose formerly solid rearguard are now without a clean sheet in 11 matches, but sealing progress to the last eight was the ultimate aim and the Gunners can now focus on upsetting the top-four apple cart before the international break.
This weekend's visitors have triumphed in four of their last six games in all competitions and enjoyed a confidence-boosting 2-1 derby win over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, and having amassed 13 points from London derbies already this season, the Gunners boast the highest points tally from fixtures between capital sides in the 2020-21 campaign.
Arsenal are also unbeaten in four away from home across all competitions, but only one of their last four Premier League matches on unfamiliar territory has ended in victory, and anything other than three points this weekend would all but extinguish any already-slim hopes of a top-four charge in the final weeks of the season.
However, the Gunners did overcome West Ham 2-1 back in September and have lost just three of their last 24 top-flight matches against their London rivals, who did beat Arsenal at home as recently as January 2019.
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Team News
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Moyes will be delighted to welcome Jesse Lingard back to the fold after he was ineligible to play against Man United, and the England international makes a timely return with Pablo Fornals and Andriy Yarmolenko nursing injuries.
Lingard has struck four times in seven starts against the Gunners and will be determined to keep his hot streak going here, but Ryan Fredericks also remains a doubt for the hosts with a groin problem.
Mark Noble and Ben Johnson both started at Old Trafford but will surely take their spots on the bench for this game, as Said Benrahma and Manuel Lanzini look set to battle it out for a spot in Moyes's attacking quartet.
Arsenal have had very few concerns on the injury front since the turn of the year, but attacking duo Willian and Bukayo Saka missed out in midweek with calf and hamstring problems respectively, although the latter is now available for selection and could play a part.
Aubameyang returned to the starting XI against Olympiacos after being dropped for a breach of protocol last weekend, but after his wasteful performance on the night, Alexandre Lacazette could be given the nod as he aims to build on his impressive tally against West Ham.
Cedric Soares, Martin Odegaard and Thomas Partey are all expected to return to Arteta's first XI as well, with Hector Bellerin, Dani Ceballos and Mohamed Elneny dropping out.
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Fabianski; Coufal, Dawson, Diop, Cresswell; Rice, Soucek; Bowen, Lanzini, Lingard; Antonio
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Cedric, Luiz, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Partey; Pepe, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Lacazette
We say: West Ham United 1-1 Arsenal
Arsenal have not exactly produced the goods when it always matters most this season, but London derbies are where they have excelled. However, the midweek defeat to Olympiacos would hardly have inspired much confidence within their ranks, and with a Champions League-chasing West Ham boosted by the return of a rejuvenated Lingard, we can envisage both sides claiming a share of the spoils at the London Stadium.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 46.26%. A win for West Ham United had a probability of 27.74% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest West Ham United win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
