Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 46%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Belgrano had a probability of 23.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.31%), while for a Belgrano win it was 0-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.