Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (11.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.