Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.28%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.