Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.98%) and 2-1 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gimnasia would win this match.