Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Tucuman win with a probability of 53.23%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 19.55%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Tucuman win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (8.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Tucuman would win this match.