Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Tucuman win with a probability of 54.36%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Tucuman win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Tucuman would win this match.