Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Vasteras SK had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Vasteras SK win was 1-2 (6.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.