Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Varnamo had a probability of 12.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.31%), while for a Varnamo win it was 0-1 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.

Result
Malmo	Draw	Varnamo
70.15% ( 0.16)	17.64% ( 0.02)	12.21% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 51.79% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.41% (

-0.57)

38.59% (

0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.11% (

-0.6)

60.89% (

0.6)

Malmo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.14% (

-0.11)

9.86% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.3% (

-0.26)

32.7% (

0.26)

Varnamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.45% (

-0.66)

42.54% (

0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.1% (

-0.57)

78.9% (

0.56)

Score Analysis

Malmo 70.15%

Varnamo 12.21%

Draw 17.64%

Malmo	Draw	Varnamo
2-0 @ 11.25% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.3% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.05) 6-0 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 3.86% Total : 70.15%	1-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.12% Total : 17.64%	0-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.36% Total : 12.21%