Ajax play host to AZ Alkmaar on Sunday afternoon knowing that victory could be enough to retain the Eredivisie title.
However, if third-placed AZ prevail at the Johan Cruyff Arena, the lead at the top of the standings will be cut to nine points with four matches remaining.
Match preview
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Ahead of Thursday's home fixture with FC Utrecht, everyone associated with Ajax was expecting their 24th top-flight victory of the season.
However, for just the sixth time since September, the champions dropped points on the domestic scene, being held to a 1-1 draw after failing to overturn Simon Gustafson's early penalty.
Requiring just four points from five games, Ajax should still ease to yet another Eredivisie crown, but Erik ten Hag will want to do so in style rather than stumbling over the line.
They could achieve that goal with an improved performance against one of their rivals, who have been left encouraged by Ajax netting just four times in 270 minutes of league action.
One of those efforts came from the penalty spot, while January arrival Sebastien Haller has scored just three goals from his last eight appearances in all competitions.
Rather than making any sort of a challenge for the league title, AZ are solely focused on trying to finish ahead of PSV Eindhoven for the second Champions League place.
With five games remaining, only goal difference separates the two sides, and PSV have the potentially-decisive bonus of having already played all their fixtures against the top five.
While Pascal Jansen will be happy enough being the underdogs, there will be an acceptance that defeat on Sunday would hand a clear advantage to their nearest rivals during the run-in.
On the plus side, AZ head into this encounter having won their last four league fixtures for the loss of just one goal, going seven halves of football since Albert Gudmundsson's own goal against FC Twente on March 13.
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Team News
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Ten Hag will almost certainly make at least one change to his Ajax XI with Davy Klaassen in line to replace Mohammed Kudus.
Perr Schuurs is also an option in defence, but Ten Hag could stick to the solitary alteration for this contest.
Teun Koopmeiners serves the second of a three-match ban, meaning that Jansen could stick with the side which defeated Sparta Rotterdam on April 10.
Despite scoring as a substitute in the last fixture, Dani de Wit is expected to remain among the replacements.
Ajax possible starting lineup:
Stekelenburg; Rensch, Timber, Martinez, Tagliafico; Klaassen, Alvarez, Gravenberch; Neres, Haller, Tadic
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Svensson, Letschert, Martins Indi, Wijndal; Midtsjo, Clasie; Stengs, Gudmundsson, Karlsson; Boadu
We say: Ajax 2-1 AZ Alkmaar
After their disappointing result in midweek, we expect Ajax to come out firing on all cylinders. While AZ will make things difficult for the home side, Ten Hag's men could edge their way to victory, potentially with a late goal.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.21%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 24.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.32%) and 1-0 (7.19%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
