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Africa Cup of Nations

Central African Republic national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 5, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi
Lesotho national football team

CAR
3 - 1
Lesotho

Mafouta (1', 24'), Koyalipou (62')
Baboula (59')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Motebang (56')
Rasethuntsa (19'), Sefali (22'), Motebang (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Central African Republic and Lesotho, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Central African Republic

Last Game: Ghana 4-3 CAR
Monday, June 10 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Lesotho

Last Game: Lesotho 1-3 Angola
Wednesday, July 3 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central African Republic win with a probability of 73.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 8.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Central African Republic win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.88%) and 3-0 (10.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.27%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central African Republic would win this match.

Result
Central African RepublicDrawLesotho
73.01% (0.827 0.83)18.57% (-0.24 -0.24)8.41% (-0.582 -0.58)
Both teams to score 35.22% (-1.537 -1.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.76% (-0.72199999999999 -0.72)53.23% (0.728 0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.2% (-0.616 -0.62)74.79% (0.621 0.62)
Central African Republic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.79% (0.028000000000006 0.03)13.21% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.05% (0.053999999999995 0.05)39.95% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
Lesotho Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
40.59% (-1.782 -1.78)59.41% (1.787 1.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
9.65% (-0.9551 -0.96)90.35% (0.962 0.96)
Score Analysis
    Central African Republic 73%
    Lesotho 8.41%
    Draw 18.57%
Central African RepublicDrawLesotho
2-0 @ 16.07% (0.48 0.48)
1-0 @ 15.88% (0.46 0.46)
3-0 @ 10.85% (0.34 0.34)
2-1 @ 8.37% (-0.224 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.65% (-0.146 -0.15)
4-0 @ 5.49% (0.175 0.18)
4-1 @ 2.86% (-0.071 -0.07)
5-0 @ 2.22% (0.073 0.07)
3-2 @ 1.47% (-0.126 -0.13)
5-1 @ 1.16% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 73%
1-1 @ 8.27% (-0.23 -0.23)
0-0 @ 7.85% (0.221 0.22)
2-2 @ 2.18% (-0.19 -0.19)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 18.57%
0-1 @ 4.09% (-0.117 -0.12)
1-2 @ 2.15% (-0.19 -0.19)
0-2 @ 1.06% (-0.094 -0.09)
Other @ 1.11%
Total : 8.41%

How you voted: CAR vs Lesotho

Central African Republic
66.7%
Draw
33.3%
Lesotho
0.0%
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