Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pakhtakor Tashkent win with a probability of 69.42%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Ahal had a probability of 11.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pakhtakor Tashkent win was 2-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Ahal win it was 0-1 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pakhtakor Tashkent would win this match.