AFC Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 24, 2023 at 3pm UK

Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Pakhtakor
3 - 0
Ahal

Erkinov (23'), Turgunboev (27', 59')
Kholmatov (84')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Tagayew (21'), Tursunov (31'), Ravshanow (62')

Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Pakhtakor Tashkent and Ahal.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pakhtakor Tashkent

Last Game: Al Fayha 2-0 Pakhtakor
Tuesday, October 3 at 5pm in AFC Champions League

Ahal

Last Game: Al-Ain 4-2 Ahal
Tuesday, October 3 at 5pm in AFC Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pakhtakor Tashkent win with a probability of 69.42%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Ahal had a probability of 11.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pakhtakor Tashkent win was 2-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Ahal win it was 0-1 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pakhtakor Tashkent would win this match.

Result
Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	Ahal
69.42% ( 0.03)	18.92% ( -0.01)	11.66% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 45.54% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.08% (

-0.01)

45.92% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.78% (

-0.01)

68.22% (

0.01)

Pakhtakor Tashkent Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.92% (

0.01)

12.08% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.39% (

0.01)

37.61% (

-0.01)

Ahal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.8% (

-0.04)

48.2% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.62% (

-0.03)

83.38% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Pakhtakor Tashkent 69.41%

Ahal 11.66%

Draw 18.92%

Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	Ahal
2-0 @ 13% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 12.3% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0) 3-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.69% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.53% 3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.05% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.49% 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 69.41%	1-1 @ 8.98% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0) Other @ 0.66% Total : 18.92%	0-1 @ 4.25% ( -0) 1-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 11.66%