AFC Champions League Gameweek 3
Oct 26, 2026 4.00pm
Alinma Stadium

Al-Ahli vs Al Gharafa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Al-Ahli

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last game
Sep 14, 2026 7.15pm
Al-Ahli 1 - 1 Pakhtakor

Al Gharafa

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last game
Sep 15, 2026 7.15pm
Al-Hilal 0 - 0 Al Gharafa

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 70.94%. A draw has a probability of 17.06% and a win for Al Gharafa has a probability of 12.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Al-Ahli win is 2-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.15%) and 3-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8%) , while for a Al Gharafa win it is 1-2 (3.62%).

Result

Al-Ahli 70.94% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 17.06% ▲ (+0.05)
Al Gharafa 12.01% ▼ (-0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.89% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.07% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 15.93% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 64.64% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 35.36% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 42.31% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 57.69% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 4.5 31.72% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 68.28% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Al-Ahli 59.47% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 29.22% ▼ (-0.09)
Al Gharafa 11.31% ▲ (+0.08)

Team To Score First

Al-Ahli 74.88% ▲ (+0.08)
No Goal 4.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Al Gharafa 20.77% ▼ (-0.11)

Corners

Over 8 56.14% ▼ (-0.14)
Equal 8 11.09%
Under 8 32.78% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 9 44.98% ▼ (-0.13)
Equal 9 11.16% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 43.86% ▲ (+0.14)
Over 10.5 34.62% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 10.5 65.38% ▲ (+0.10)

Al-Ahli Goals

Over 1.5 68.31% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 31.69% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 44.7%
Under 2.5 55.3%
Over 3.5 26.13% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 3.5 73.87% ▼ (-0.13)

Al Gharafa Goals

Over 0.5 42.98% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 0.5 57.02% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 1.5 16.32% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 83.68% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 4.37%
Under 2.5 95.63%
Over 3.5 1.05%
Under 3.5 98.95%

Score analysis

Al-Ahli 70.95%
Draw 17.06%
Al Gharafa 12.01%
Al-Ahli
2-0 @ 9.88% ▲ (+0.12)
2-1 @ 9.15% ▼ (-0.04)
3-0 @ 8.64% ▼ (-0.02)
1-0 @ 8.17% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.08% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.03% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 26% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 70.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 8% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.35% ▲ (+0.02)
2-2 @ 3.76% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.13% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 17.06%
Al Gharafa
1-2 @ 3.62% ▲ (+0.02)
0-1 @ 3.43% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 1.54% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.92% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 12.01%

Head to Head

AFC Champions League
Oct 20, 2025 7.15pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Gameweek 4
Mar 13, 2018 5.15pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Mansour Almuwallad 32' yellowcard
  • Salman Al Moasher 45' yellowcard
  • Momen Zakaria 58' goal
  • goal Mehdi Taremi 56'
  • yellowcard Wesley Sneijder 90'
Gameweek 3
Mar 5, 2018 3.10pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Rubert Quijada 91' goal
  • goal Aqeel Al Sahbi 62'