Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SJK win with a probability of 48.07%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SJK win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SJK would win this match.