Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a KuPS win with a probability of 71.33%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 11.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a KuPS win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.04%), while for a IFK Mariehamn win it was 1-2 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that KuPS would win this match.