Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lahti win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lahti win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.66%) and 0-2 (5.64%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.