Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nuremberg win with a probability of 38.71%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 37.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nuremberg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (5.68%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.