Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Magdeburg win with a probability of 49.27%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Magdeburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.88%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Magdeburg would win this match.