Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Magdeburg had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.7%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Magdeburg win was 1-2 (7.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.