Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Roma had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Roma |
47.64% | 23.63% | 28.73% |
Both teams to score 59.53% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.97% | 42.04% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.56% | 64.44% |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.16% | 17.85% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.4% | 48.61% |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.46% | 27.54% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.94% | 63.06% |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Roma |
2-1 @ 9.41% 1-0 @ 8.47% 2-0 @ 7.3% 3-1 @ 5.41% 3-0 @ 4.19% 3-2 @ 3.49% 4-1 @ 2.33% 4-0 @ 1.81% 4-2 @ 1.5% Other @ 3.73% Total : 47.64% | 1-1 @ 10.92% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 4.92% 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.63% | 1-2 @ 7.04% 0-1 @ 6.34% 0-2 @ 4.09% 1-3 @ 3.03% 2-3 @ 2.61% 0-3 @ 1.76% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.9% Total : 28.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 36 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 86 | 19 | 67 | 92 |
2 | AC Milan | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 67 |
4 | Juventus | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 39 | 26 | 63 |
6 | Roma | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 63 | 44 | 19 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 36 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 59 |
8 | Fiorentina | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 53 |
9 | Napoli | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 51 |
10 | Torino | 36 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 50 |
11 | Genoa | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 45 |
13 | Lecce | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 34 |
15 | Udinese | 36 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 33 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
17 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 32 |
18 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 32 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 36 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 42 | 72 | -30 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 36 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 76 | -48 | 16 |
> Serie A Full Table |