Saudi Arabia welcome Japan to the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium on Thursday evening for the third game of the World Cup 2022 Asian third qualifying round.
The hosts sit second in Group B, behind Australia only on goal difference, whilst their opponents have some work to do after a shock defeat in the opening game.
Match preview
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Saudi Arabia have had a perfect start to the latest stage of their qualifying campaign and have put themselves in a great early position to match their achievement of four years ago and qualify for the World Cup again.
The Green Falcons cruised through the second round, with draws against Yemen and Palestine being the only blemishes on their record, and have continued that form with back-to-back victories in the third round.
They started in style at home to Vietnam, overturning an early one-goal deficit to record a 3-1 win - aided by the visitors being reduced to 10 men - and followed that up with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Oman, who came into the game on the back of a shock victory over Japan.
The all-important goal came just before half time, courtesy of Saleh Al-Shehri, as the striker made it two in two matches.
Herve Renard's side are now on a run of seven consecutive wins and will be determined to take points from the upcoming games against Japan and China to leave themselves well-placed as the midway stage of the group approaches.
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Japan will be at least as determined, however, after the aforementioned shock defeat to Oman left them in a position they would not have been expecting.
The Samurai Blue wasted plenty of opportunities, failing to take advantage of 65% of the possession, and were stunned by an 88th-minute strike from Issam Al Sabhi.
They were able to bounce back with a narrow 1-0 victory over rivals China in the next game - Japan once again dominated the game but could only convert the one chance, when Vissel Kobe forward Yuya Osako volleyed home just before half time.
It has been more than 27 years since Japan missed out on their first World Cup appearance in heartbreaking fashion, conceding a crucial goal in the 90th minute to Iraq, and they have been at every finals since.
If they are to keep up that record, they could really do with a win here to reduce the pressure heading into a crunch match against Australia next week.
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Team News
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Abdullah Otayf, Salem Al-Dawsari and Mohammed Al-Breik have all missed out on the Saudi squad due to injuries, whilst Abdullah Al-Hamdan and Ali Al-Asmari were dropped by Renard.
The French coach has brought back Abdulrahman Al-Aboud and given Hussain Qassem his first national team call-up.
Right-back Sultan Al-Ghanam has established himself as one of the most important members of the team, dislodging Al-Breik from his spot, and becoming a key player for the Green Falcons.
As for Japan, midfielder Ao Tanaka has been recalled to the squad after playing a key role as the Olympic team reached the Tokyo semi-finals.
Liverpool's Takumi Minamino also returns to the group, having previously missed out through injury, and will likely be one of the first names on the team sheet.
Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:
Al-Owais; Al-Ghanam, Al-Amri, Madu, Al-Shahrani; Al-Malki, Kanno; Al-Muwallad, Al-Faraj, Al-Shehri; Al-Dawsari
Japan possible starting lineup:
Gonda; Tomiyasu, Ueda, Yoshida, Nagatomo; Endo, Shibasaki; Doan, Minamino, Furuhashi; Osako
We say: Saudi Arabia 0-2 Japan
It may be Saudi Arabia who are currently higher up in the table, but we are backing Japan to overcome their tricky start and use the extra class in their squad to climb back above their opponents.
Renard's team will make them work for it but we can see the final score being a fairly comfortable victory in the end, with top scorers Osako and Minamino likely to grab a goal or two.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 46.63%. A win for Japan had a probability of 30.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.53%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Japan win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saudi Arabia would win this match.
