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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 67.16%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 11.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.47%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stevenage in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Stevenage.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Gillingham |
67.16% ( 0.21) | 21.18% ( -0.11) | 11.66% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 39.08% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.19% ( 0.23) | 54.81% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.89% ( 0.19) | 76.11% ( -0.19) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.47% ( 0.14) | 15.53% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.54% ( 0.27) | 44.46% ( -0.27) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.27% ( -0.02) | 53.73% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
12.89% ( -0.01) | 87.11% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Gillingham |
1-0 @ 15.54% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 14.47% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.55% Total : 67.16% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 2.79% Other @ 0.39% Total : 21.18% | 0-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.87% Total : 11.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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