Lazio square off against Venezia on Wednesday afternoon knowing that they realistically require all three points to keep in close proximity to the top seven in the Serie A standings.
Despite being on a five-match winless streak, Venezia have recently opened up a seven-point advantage ahead of the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Having not won successive matches in Serie A since August, Lazio can perhaps count themselves fortunate to still be as high as eighth place in the table.
Nevertheless, the pressure remains on Maurizio Sarri to oversee a turnaround at Stadio Olimpico now that they sit nine points adrift of fourth-placed Atalanta BC.
A 3-1 victory over struggling Genoa at the weekend was another step in the right direction, but I Biancocelesti will not make progress up the standings unless they improve away from home.
Just two wins have come from nine fixtures on their travels, although they did produce their best away performance of the campaign at Sampdoria as recently as December 5.
On the plus side, their success against Genoa came without top goalscorer Ciro Immobile in the team, and Sarri will hope that some of his players taking on extra responsibility can benefit them moving forward.
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Opponents Venezia remain one of the surprise packages of the season after following fifth place in Serie B with a strong start to life back in the top flight.
While failing to win in Serie A since November 21 has not been ideal, Paolo Zanetti will be more than satisfied with his squad, who have created breathing space above the drop zone.
Comeback draws versus Juventus and Sampdoria have lifted morale after three successive defeats, but Wednesday's fixture with Lazio is a continuation of a tough run of fixtures through to the start of February.
Although Venezia have performed marginally better away from home, Gli Arancioneroverdi have already defeated Fiorentina and Roma at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this season.
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Team News
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Having rotated his players regularly during the Sampdoria draw, Zanetti may be prepared to name the same starting lineup on Wednesday afternoon.
Thomas Henry will feel that he should be recalled after netting the winner as a substitute during that game, and the Frenchman could replace Dennis Johnsen.
Chelsea loanee Ethan Ampadu should also retain his spot in the team, despite being withdrawn around the hour mark on his last two appearances.
Sarri will hope that Immobile has fully recovered from a stomach bug to take his place in the Lazio attack.
Luis Alberto should get the nod in midfield, the Spaniard a potential replacement for Toma Basic after chipping in with two important assists on Friday night.
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Mazzocchi, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Ebuehi; Busio, Ampadu, Tessmann; Aramu, Johnsen, Kiyine
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Hysaj, Felipe, Acerbi, Marusic; Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Luis Alberto; Pedro, Immobile, Anderson
We say: Venezia 1-3 Lazio
While Venezia will relish the challenge of playing host to another high-profile team, Lazio have no option but to produce an attack-minded performance. With that in mind, we expect Sarri's side to have too much firepower for the home side, securing another much-needed win in the process.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.93%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 31.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Venezia win was 1-0 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Lazio in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lazio.
