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Bayern logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Dec 9, 2020 at 8pm UK
Allianz Arena
Lokomotiv Moscow

Bayern
2 - 0
Lokomotiv

Sule (63'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (80')
Boateng (64'), Sane (69')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Zhivoglyadov (60')

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Lokomotiv Moscow - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Bayern Munich and Lokomotiv Moscow, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayern Munich round off their Champions League Group A campaign with a home game against bottom side Lokomotiv Moscow on Wednesday evening.

The reigning European champions are already assured of top spot heading into matchday six, while Lokomotiv have a slim chance of finishing in third.


Match preview

Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Bayern's record run of 15 successive victories in the Champions League, a run that took them all the way to the title last season, came to an end in their most recent match.

However, the 1-1 draw away at Atletico Madrid can be considered an impressive point for the German giants given that they fielded a weakened XI.

Robert Lewandowski and Manuel Neuer were left out of the squad, while Thomas Muller was brought on as a second-half substitute and scored from the penalty spot.

Hansi Flick was in a position to heavily rotate as top spot has been guaranteed since beating Red Bull Salzburg two weeks ago.

Assuming an experimental side is fielded at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, Lokomotiv will consider this an opportunity to pull off what would still be a big upset.

Current Lokomotiv Moscow manager Marko Nikolic in charge of Vidi in October 2018© Reuters

The Russian side still have something to play for, too, as three points in Bavaria, combined with Salzburg failing to beat Atletico, will see them book a Europa League last-32 spot.

Lokomotiv have taken points off Atletico home and away this term, as well as holding Salzburg away, but they are winless in UEFA's flagship competition in 10 games.

It is worth nothing, though, that their most recent such victory came on German soil against Bayer Leverkusen in September 2019.

Bayern are the best team in Europe for a reason, of course, and they are looking to win for a 20th time in 21 home group outings.

They are unbeaten in 15 games overall since a shock 4-1 loss to Hoffenheim in late September - that being their only defeat in 45 outings in a run spanning nearly a year.

Bayern Munich Champions League form: WWWWWD
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WDWWDD

Lokomotiv Moscow Champions League form: DLDDL
Lokomotiv Moscow form (all competitions): LWDDLW


Team News

Bayern Munich's Serge Gnabry celebrates scoring their second goal on February 25, 2020© Reuters

Flick made nine changes to Bayern's starting lineup for the trip to Atletico and something similar can be expected here.

Bright Arrey-Mbi made his debut in the draw at the Wanda Metropolitano, becoming the club's youngest European starter, and will hope to earn another start.

Wingers Douglas Costa and Serge Gnabry were brought on as subs against RB Leipzig at the weekend and may return for this one, highlighting Bayern's strength in depth.

As for the hosts, Daniil Kulikov has tested positive for coronavirus and will play no part, so Stanislav Magkeev should start in central midfield.

Ze Luis, Fedor Smolov, Mikhail Lysov and Dmitri Barinov are Lokomotiv's other confirmed injury absentees.

Anton Miranchuk has netted three of Lokomotiv's five goals in the Champions League this season, while also attempting more shots (7) and creating more chances (8) than any other player for the Russian side.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Sarr, Sule, Alaba, Richards; Musiala, Roca, Goretzka; Gnabry, Choupo-Moting, Costa

Lokomotiv Moscow possible starting lineup:
Guilherme; Zhivoglyadov, Corluka, Cerqueira, Rybus; Ignatjev, Krychowiak, Magkeev, Miranchuk; Eder, Lisakovich


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow

Even accounting for the mass changes that Flick is likely to make, Bayern will still have a strong side on display at the Allianz Arena.

Lokomotiv need a victory to have any hope of keeping their European campaign alive, but they are winless in 10 Champions League matches and that will surely not change on Wednesday.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 67.63%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 9.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.58%) and 3-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.67%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Thomas Muller in action for Bayern Munich against Union Berlin on May 17, 2020
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
QBayern651016
QCopenhagen62228
3Galatasaray61235
4Man Utd61144

Group B

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QArsenal641113
QPSV62319
3Lens62228
4Sevilla60242

Group C

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QReal Madrid660018
QNapoli631210
3Braga61144
4Union Berlin60242

Group D

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QReal Sociedad633012
QInter Milan633012
3Benfica61144
4Salzburg61144

Group E

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QAtletico642014
QLazio631210
3Feyenoord62046
4Celtic61144

Group F

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QDortmund632111
QPSG62228
3AC Milan62228
4Newcastle61235

Group G

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QMan City660018
QRB Leipzig640212
3Young Boys61144
4Red Star60151

Group H

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QBarcelona640212
QPorto640212
3Shakhtar63039
4Antwerp61053


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