Preview: US Open: Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova - prediction, form, head-to-head

Venus Williams, the oldest woman competing at the US Open since Renee Richards in 1981, aims to avoid a fourth consecutive first-round exit at a Grand Slam when she faces Karolina Muchova on Monday night.

The 45-year-old wildcard returns to the Slam for the first time in two years, seeking to upset the 11th seed and reach the second round in New York for the first time since 2019.

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Match preview

Williams, a two-time champion at Flushing Meadows, made history in Washington last month when she emulated Martina Navratilova as the second-oldest player since 1990 to win a WTA-level match after beating Peyton Stearns. 

That achievement was the 49-time WTA champion’s first win on the women's tour in nearly two years, since she beat Veronika Kudermetova in two sets at Cincinnati in 2023.

Although the veteran took a hiatus of over a year, beating her compatriot in the United States snapped a four-match losing streak, and the world No. 610 winning 71% of her first-serve points was crucial to that 6-4, 6-4 victory.

Since then, she has lost two matches, with Magdalena Frech and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro defeating the 45-year-old in Washington and Cincinnati, respectively, ahead of the final Slam of the year.

Aiming to break that losing run, the two-time US Open champion needs to secure her first victory at her home Slam since beating Saisai Zheng in 2019. 

Since that first-round win, the veteran has been defeated by Elina Svitolina, Karolina Muchova — who she faces on Monday — Alison Van Uytvanck and Greet Minnen.

All those defeats have come in two sets, and the seven-time champion remains the rank outsider to reach a second match in New York.

Having previously beaten Monday’s opponent at this stage, Muchova has experience here, though that does not lessen the potential influence of the crowd’s one-sided support for Williams.

Nevertheless, the Czech star’s variety in shot-making and execution should test the 45-year-old’s movement in the opening round.

Unlike Williams, who enters the US Open undeniably under-prepared, the prospects appear brighter for the world No. 12 after responding positively from a disappointing grass season, following a 3-2 record since exiting the Championships.

The 29-year-old star may have suffered early exits at the Slams this year, notably losing in the second round in Australia, and being eliminated in the first round in Paris and SW19.

However, the consecutive semi-finalist in New York is entering this year's event after reaching the last four in both 2023 and 2024, highlighting the Czech player's recent improvement at the tournament, where her 17 wins surpass those of any other Major.

Aiming to secure an 18th win, Muchova, who boasts a 71% win rate at the US Open, seeks to improve that record and potentially set up a second-round clash with Sorana Cirstea or Solana Sierra.

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Head To Head

US Open (2020) - First round: Muchova 6-3 7-5

Muchova defeated Williams in straight sets five years ago, although the match was played without spectators, an advantage the Czech player will not have this time. 

The 29-year-old has a 17-7 record at Flushing Meadows, which is considerably fewer than the two-time champion, whose next win at the New York event will be her 80th (79-21). 

The veteran's 1-2 win-loss record is notably worse than Muchova’s, who is 16-12 in 2025 coming into Monday's match.

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We say: Muchova to win in two sets

Although Williams can count on partisan support on Monday night under the lights inside Arthur Ashe, it is difficult to see the veteran star causing an upset against Muchova.

A challenging draw was always likely because of the 45-year-old’s ranking, and she is expected to exit in the tournament opener of a Major for the fourth consecutive time.