Preview:US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka must solve her Amanda Anisimova puzzle on Saturday to keep her US Open title against the first-time American finalist in New York.

Both players required comeback victories in their semi-finals, with Sabalenka outlasting Jessica Pegula in the rematch of the 2024 final, while Anisimova overcame palpable nerves to defeat four-time Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka after nearly three hours.

Match preview

Sabalenka’s consistency in 2025 may not have resulted in a Grand Slam win, but the Belarusian cannot be accused of not giving her all after reaching another final in Flushing.

By defeating Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in two hours and five minutes, the 20-time WTA titleholder will compete for her 21st crown as she aims to successfully defend the title she won 12 months ago.

That ambition appeared threatened after losing the first set; however, the top seed mounted a comeback to beat last year's runner-up in three sets, thus progressing to the last three finals in New York along with all three in Australia.

Despite reaching the last six finals at the hard court Grand Slams, Sabalenka's mixed success rate in title matches has prevented the three-time Grand Slam champion from securing more crowns at the big events.

The Belarusian was defeated in the 2023 US Open final by Coco Gauff and by Madison Keys Down Under in January, with the defeat to Keys in Australia ending the Belarusian star's dream of a three-peat in Melbourne.

Sabalenka's 20-18 record in finals undeniably highlights her unreliability in sealing victories on numerous occasions, and the top seed returns to the big stage in New York aiming for better fortune three months after falling to Gauff in an error-strewn French Open final.

Facing Anisimova means the Belarusian must overcome her bete noire on Saturday, given the American's superiority in their previous encounters.

The eighth seed in Flushing, like Sabalenka, needed a turnaround in her semi-final against Osaka, though the latter semi-final was undeniably more tense, lasting two hours and 56 minutes and finishing just before 1 AM local time in New York.

The 24-year-old emerged victorious in the tale of two tiebreaks — Osaka claimed the first and Anisimova levelled the match by winning the second-set shootout — before sealing victory on her third match point in the third set, ending the Japanese star's dream run in Flushing, where she is a two-time US Open champion.

Anisimova's nerves may have been a concern in the opening two sets, but the 24-year-old fought through regardless to reach the final of consecutive Slams after competing in her first at Wimbledon.

Having been overwhelmed by the occasion at the Championships, losing to Iga Swiatek in just 57 minutes without winning a game, the eighth seed will seek a different outcome on home soil after emulating Serena and Venus Williams as the youngest player to reach the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open since the sisters in 2002.

Anisimova has pushed through her pain at SW19 to advance this far again; now, she hopes that playing at home will help her find the joy of winning her first Grand Slam, potentially at the expense of the top hard-court player on the women's tour.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1

Second round: vs. Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 6-2

Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 6-3 7-6(2)

Fourth round: vs. Cristina Bucsa 6-1 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Marketa Vondrousova walkover

Semi-final: vs. Jessica Pegula 4-6 6-3 6-4

Amanda Anisimova:

First round: vs. Kimberly Birrell 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Maya Joint 7-6(2) 6-2

Third round: vs. Jaqueline Cristian 6-4 4-6 6-2

Fourth round: vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-0 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-3

Semi-final: vs. Naomi Osaka 6-7(4) 7-6(3) 6-3

Head To Head

Wimbledon (2025) – Semi-final: Anisimova 6-4 4-6 6-4

French Open (2025) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 7-5 6-3

Toronto (2024) - Quarter-final: Anisimova 6-4 6-2

Australian Open (2024) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-3 6-2

Rome (2022) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 4-6 6-3 6-2

Madrid (2022) - First round: Anisimova 6-2 3-6 6-4

Charleston (2022) - Round of 16: Anisimova 3-6 6-4 6-3

French Open (2019) - Second round: Anisimova 6-4 6-2

Australian Open (2019) - Third round: Anisimova 6-3 6-2

Anisimova leads Sabalenka 6-3 in their head-to-head ahead of Saturday’s US Open final, marking their sixth meeting at a Grand Slam.

The American player has defeated the world No. 1 on every surface at the majors, with wins in Australia and Paris in 2019, and most recently on the lawns of Wimbledon.

Sabalenka's triumphs over the world No. 8 at Slams include last year's Australian Open and this season's French Open.

Both finalists are tied at 1-1 in their 2025 encounters, with Anisimova winning their most recent match at the Championships in a thrilling three-set match.

Sabalenka enters the title match with a season record of 55-10, surpassing every other player on the WTA Tour, including Anisimova, whose 39-15 win-loss record this year is considerably lower than the world No. 1's.

We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Saturday’s final between Sabalenka and Anisimova is tough to predict because both players are motivated to win, share similar aggressive styles and have comparable weaknesses that can sometimes lead to errors.

While the Belarusian can adapt her approach, her 20-18 record in finals shows she can be unpredictable in key matches.

Anisimova might not have as many defeats in finals as Sabalenka, but the risk of her game breaking down or experiencing on-court anxiety could affect the home player’s chances.

Very close margins separate these two finalists, but we back the three-time Slam champion to move past her defeats to Keys and Gauff and secure back-to-back titles in New York.