Preview: US Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Expect top-tier ball-striking under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium as Naomi Osaka and Amanda Anisimova compete in the US Open semi-final for a place in Saturday’s final.

Osaka defeated Karolina Muchova in a high-quality match on Wednesday to reach this stage for the first time since 2019, while Anisimova somewhat erased the memory of her Wimbledon final defeat by overcoming the in-form Iga Swiatek in the earlier quarter-final.

Match preview

Five years have passed since Osaka made it this far in Flushing, but the Japanese star is one win away from competing in the title match in New York.

The four-time Slam champion needed to beat marathon queen Muchova 6-4, 7-6 in a high-quality last-eight contest to set up a third meeting with Anisimova on the women’s tour, a victory standing out for both players’ hitting more winners — 30 and 21 — than unforced errors —19 and 15.

However, Muchova paid the price for lacking the killer instinct on several break-point possibilities — the Czech player was successful twice from seven opportunities on the Osaka serve — while the Japanese superstar won three of four chances created on the 11th seed's deliveries.

By notching Wednesday’s success, the 27-year-old has stayed unbeaten in all five quarter-final Grand Slam matches she has played and now aims to extend her 4-0 record in the semi-finals of majors by beating Thursday night's opponent.

Having reached the final of the Montreal tournament, where teenage sensation Victoria Mboko defeated her, Osaka has recovered commendably from a mental collapse in Canada; now she bids to reach another Slam final.

On the opposite side of the net is Anisimova, who avenged her Wimbledon final defeat to Swiatek in Wednesday’s 6-4, 6-3 victory after one hour and 36 minutes.

The eighth seed benefitted from the Polish star landing only 50% of first serves, winning 33% of second-serve points and struggling on return, as highlighted by winning 23 of 61 receiving points (38%).

With Anisimova winning 48% of receiving points, the 24-year-old American had the edge throughout the contest and unquestionably deserved the victory.

By outdoing Swiatek, Anisimova has now reached the semi-finals of Grand Slams on every surface following her 2019 French Open run and this year's Wimbledon.

That achievement has seen the Wimbledon finalist emulate Serena and Venus Williams as the first American women's singles player to advance significantly in the majors across different surfaces, a feat attributable to the three-time WTA champion who previously faced mental health struggles.

Those issues prompted a hiatus from tennis that lasted nearly a year, but the eighth seed’s rise has seen her perform well in the big events over the past 18 months, and she now aims to reach consecutive Grand Slam title matches.

Tournament so far

Naomi Osaka:

First round: vs. Greet Minnen 6-3 6-4

Second round: vs. Hailey Baptiste 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-0 4-6 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Coco Gauff 6-3 6-2

Quarter-final: vs. Karolina Muchova 6-4 7-6(3)

Amanda Anisimova:

First round: vs. Jaqueline Cristian 6-4 4-6 6-2

Second round: vs. Maya Joint 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Laura Siegemund 6-4 6-1

Fourth round: vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-0 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-4 6-3

Head To Head

French Open (2022) - First round: Anisimova 7-5 6-4

Australian Open (2022) - Third round: Anisimova 4-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Anisimova leads Osaka 2-0 in their head-to-head, with previous meetings taking place at Grand Slams.

The American defeated the four-time Slam champion in a comeback victory during the third round of the 2022 Australian Open, a match that lasted over two hours, and then secured a straight-sets win at that year's French Open.

Anisimova's wins have been supported by saving 12 of the 15 break-point chances Osaka has created in their past encounters, and this could prove vital in securing a third victory over the Japanese star on Thursday.

Nevertheless, supporters of Osaka will highlight the Japanese star’s 11-1 form heading into the semi-final, as well as a notable victory over top-10 star Coco Gauff.

By defeating Gauff, the two-time US Open champion ended her four-match losing streak against top players, although the American’s inconsistent serve and unreliable forehand were exploited by the 27-year-old.

We say: Anisimova to win in three sets

While sentimental opinion suggests that the average observer leans towards the experienced Osaka, Anisimova undoubtedly has the weapons to make the multiple Grand Slam winner uncomfortable.

Although the eighth seed must minimise errors that intermittently creep into her game to improve her chances, we are backing the American to outlast the two-time US Open champion and reach a final against either defending champion Aryna Sabalenka or Jessica Pegula.